![]() So unbelievable is that number that even if you accept that placing draconian limits on human activity works in limiting the spread of disease (and there is now ample evidence to suggest it does not) there are few realistic scenarios in which Vietnam’s health care system can produce a better result than America’s That compares favorably or, rather fantastically, to the U.S. Nike cannot make shoes container ships cannot be loaded/unloaded and cotton cannot be milled and may not have even been planted.Īnd yet, Vietnam reports but 19,000 COVID deaths or 19.5 people per 100,000k. And so on.Īs we have pointed out above, prolonged labor disruption is the most consistent effect of pandemics throughout time usually the result of death and/or migration. By fall of next year, 70% of the world will be vaccinated. The low death rates in places along supply chains demonstrates the rewards for extended limitations on commercial and social activity. deaths is offered as evidence of incompetence and decline. The group think that has pervaded everything from media reports to dinner conversations from the start of the pandemic provides ample shelter for today’s central bankers to keep telling themselves stories. Of course, you know the rest of the story. The narrative at the time was that it would be catastrophic for trade if the U.S. In the 1920s, the governor of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, Benjamin Strong, pursued a low interest rate policy designed to satisfy Montagu Norman, Governor of the Bank of England and his goal of returning England to the gold standard. Self-delusion is a powerful force when served up as an alternative to acquainting oneself with new and often underappreciated realities. If reconciliation passes as written, the road back to stasis could be very long. Inflation is upon us and likely for a while until the labor parts of the puzzle fall into their new places innovations address shortages and the economy adapts. Similarly, extending the Medicare scope of benefits to include hearing, dental and vision services will inflate those items and services It also will further aggravate the availability of workers and increase wage demands across an industry critical for replacing lost capacity in nursing homes. The proposal to spend anywhere from $150 to $400B for Home and Community-based Services in Medicaid certainly delivers a new constituency a la LBJ. We are all for nostalgia but as LBJ and Richard Nixon discovered, tossing money at a problem that exists largely in the narrative of the time and ignores the circumstances on the ground delivers mostly heartache and a lot of inflation. Yet, all these effects of pandemic, well documented throughout human history, are now cast aside to deliver on the promise of historians like Jon Meacham that President Biden would complete the unfinished business of Lyndon Johnson and Franklin Roosevelt. ![]() In Washington, workers who are compelled to return home to family after the death of a spouse or other breadwinner don’t exist. In Washington you can also ignore the dependency this country and others around the world have on migratory labor people who leave their homes in South and Central America or Eastern Europe for seasonal work in construction, transportation and agriculture. In Washington, you can ignore labor disruption caused by death, particularly of racial and ethnic minorities, that are disproportionately represented in critical industries such as agriculture, food processing, construction and transportation. Unfortunately, only in the fantasyland of Capitol Hill are these normal circumstances. The U.S., like most developed countries, is experiencing a fertility crisis and policies that support family formation are one path to reversing that. Under normal circumstances, that effect might be laudable. Leaving aside the merits of a refundable, advanceable child credit, or family and medical leave and the other priorities spelled out in the now delayed reconciliation package, most will have the effect of reducing participation in the workforce. and the world faces a shortage of workers, the primary policy objective of the White House seems to be “make it worse.” ~ Jim Carroll Band, 1980 PoliticsĪs the U.S. Click HERE to learn more about Emily's research process and the analysis subscribers receive. Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from a complimentary Health Policy Unpluggednote written by our Health Policy analyst Emily Evans.
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